Project Link:

https://github.com/doublealogic/armageddon-neo-objects-space-junk

NEOs

Using data from NASA's Center for Near Earth Object (CNEO) Studies and Space-Track.org, we analyzed the phenomenon of naturally-occurring Near Earth Orbit (NEO) objects and manmade "space junk" to glean an understanding of the frequency with which the Earth encounters dangers from space.

Questions for consideration:

In examining 300 years of data available through the CNEO, we characterized objects as presenting a legitimate catastrophic threat to Earth if they met these two criteria:

Measured greater than 100 meters in size
Reached a nominal distance from Earth of within one Lunar Distance (LD) unit - 384,402 km; the distance from the Earth to the Moon. We looked at two datasets: the first was comprised of more than 16,000 tracked objects between January 1, 1900 and October, 20, 2020. The second dataset includes more than 10,000 objects that have been tracked looking forward from October 21, 2020 through December 31, 2200. From this analysis, we are able to draw informed conclusions about the frequency of near-catastrophic collisions with large space objects. It turns out that not all threats from space are naturally occurring.

Space Junk

Since the advent of human space exploration, "space junk" has been accumulating around the Earth. With this in mind we explored the following hypotheses:

Alternative hypothesis: If countries with the highest GDP produce the most space trash then wealthier economies correlate with space trash production?
Null hypothesis: If countries with the highest GDP do not produce the most space trash then wealthier economies correlate with space trash production.

Is there a correlation between higher GDP and a greater amount of junk released into space?
Has the amount of space junk increased or decreased since the conclusion of the Space Race (circa: 1975)?

Datasets to be utilized:

Center Near Earth Orbit Studies (NASA): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/ Space-Track.org: www.space-track.org

Breakdown by Task:

For NEOs, we first chose parameters for characterizing what qualifies a NEO as presenting catastrophic potential
Gather the appropriate data from the CNEO database for two time periods (1900-10/20/2020) and (10/21/2020-2200)
Clean data to discover which objects met the given criteria for presenting potential to cause a collision catastrophe.
Analyze and graph findings
Compile data from SpaceTrack database to determine:
Which nations put the most pieces of space junk into space and is there correlation between higher GDP nations and the amount of junk released into space?
How has the amount of space junk increased/decreased over the last six decades? Has the amount of space junk increased or decreased since the end of the Space Age (1975)?

Conclusions

Only about 1/3 of potentially damaging Near Earth Orbit objects have been detected by experts. Every so often, the media report about an asteroid or other "space object" passing by Earth. If we were to rely on these sensational stories, we might conclude that the Earth is dodging cosmic bullets with great frequency; when in fact that is not the case. When a Though a catastrophic collision is unlikely in our lifetimes, it is worthwhile to continue efforts to search and track NEOs.
Space trash does appear to have some relationship with GDP of a country though the strength of that relationship is debatable due to outliers. There are some limitations to this analysis based of a number of factors. Many space agencies are private and have no affiliation with a country so those had to be removed. Some launches are collaborations between multiple countries so those had to be removed from the data set as well.
The ending of the Space Race (Start date: 1955 - End date: 1975) did not in fact decrease the amount of objects being launched into space. It actuality, it increased dramatically after 1975. That being said, and looking at history, it is likely due to the fact of trying to have the first man on the moon.

Armageddon? NEOs and Space Junk